Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.882887 15.044665 17.410576 20.185791 23.345288 26.823498 30.935461
2024-10-20 9.406222 12.307835 15.803314 20.294845 25.880441 32.562826 41.123582
2024-10-27 7.196879 10.403320 14.599940 20.424424 28.216566 38.188720 51.806959
2024-11-03 6.155114 9.683214 14.633668 21.955017 32.346364 46.377924 66.524852
2024-11-10 5.250853 8.919629 14.399192 22.970748 35.778762 53.888360 81.019508
2024-11-17 4.504912 8.214175 14.079470 23.730132 38.825307 61.049380 95.597591
2024-11-24 3.712465 7.258945 13.188167 23.431138 40.165659 65.759305 106.940591
2024-12-01 2.988639 6.264077 12.049111 22.528010 40.379463 68.688010 115.741879
2024-12-08 2.443039 5.474859 11.117424 21.805006 40.735682 71.775385 124.925818
2024-12-15 2.114444 5.034311 10.729760 21.953304 42.525313 77.250987 138.259768
2024-12-22 1.782491 4.515415 10.106352 21.570861 43.311851 81.078053 149.119168
2024-12-29 1.661982 4.428406 10.310148 22.761202 47.019606 90.121783 169.322394
2025-01-05 1.459917 4.126240 10.053562 23.067678 49.214131 96.871827 186.403863
2025-01-12 1.274677 3.825357 9.756251 23.261648 51.232861 103.511344 203.871969
2025-01-19 1.114432 3.549875 9.469153 23.436062 53.226593 110.262913 222.043282
2025-01-26 1.072008 3.578348 9.883636 25.175603 58.536151 123.590637 253.098325
2025-02-02 0.997063 3.498978 10.027760 26.326533 62.732462 135.094909 281.509468
2025-02-09 0.914141 3.376456 10.045060 27.185014 66.384141 145.793390 309.071417
2025-02-16 0.786671 3.084630 9.581632 26.848557 67.414869 151.382939 327.196258
2025-02-23 0.651257 2.727399 8.879101 25.829872 66.818182 153.627901 338.919396
2025-03-02 0.544602 2.433710 8.293457 25.013822 66.578467 156.553762 352.135013
2025-03-09 0.484184 2.287087 8.100330 25.181303 68.631327 164.405227 375.742807
2025-03-16 0.414969 2.084750 7.703397 24.749488 69.207153 169.133499 393.221866